Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Moscow refinery damage is real but operationally limited, with Russia restoring most throughput after inspections and firefighting. Ukraine continues to show reach into the Russian capital, but the immediate market effect stays concentrated in refined products rather than broad risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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