Possible scenario
Restart Proves Fragile
25% Chance
The market initially sells gas futures, but technical or safety issues at the Qatari facilities keep traders from fully removing supply risk. Volatility returns quickly if cargo nominations slip or counterparties report that December volumes remain uncertain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Utilities -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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