Possible scenario
Qatar Flows Normalize
45% Chance
QatarEnergy sustains the restart at Ras Laffan and buyers treat the force majeure as effectively resolved. The immediate result is lower scarcity premia in LNG-linked gas markets and reduced concern that Europe must outbid Asia for U.S. cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Utilities +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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