Possible scenario
Europe Avoids Bidding War
20% Chance
European buyers use improved Qatari availability and adequate storage to avoid chasing U.S. spot LNG aggressively. This reduces the risk that U.S. domestic gas prices must rise to ration cargoes away from other regions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.