Possible scenario
European Burden Sharing
25% Chance
Germany's visit helps catalyze additional European commitments as the EU and NATO members try to keep Ukraine funded through 2027. The political message is that Europe will continue underwriting Ukraine even if US support becomes less predictable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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