Possible scenario
Inflation scare fades
20% Chance
Markets conclude the ISM prices spike is important but not enough on its own to change the inflation trajectory without confirmation from CPI, PCE and wage data. Risk assets stabilize as investors fade the initial hawkish reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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