Possible scenario
Fed reprices hawkishly
45% Chance
The ISM services prices index at a 50-month high reinforces the view that inflation is re-accelerating through labor-intensive services, tariffs and energy pass-through. Markets quickly trim expectations for 2027 easing and push Treasury yields higher.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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