Possible scenario
Stefanik Ousts Johnson
27% Chance
Elise Stefanik capitalizes on anger over losing the House and argues that Johnson cannot credibly lead Republicans back to the majority. Her stronger media profile and ties to Trump-aligned members give her a realistic path if the conference decides it needs a sharper opposition voice.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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