Possible scenario
Oil Shock Worsens
25% Chance
A further disruption to Gulf shipping or Iranian exports would turn the French inflation story into a broader European energy shock. This would produce the largest near-term market reaction, with oil prices and volatility rising while transport and consumer sectors sell off.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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