Possible scenario
Democratic Upset Path
18% Chance
The public focus on Angela Paxton's support keeps attention on the personal and ethical controversies that weakened Ken Paxton during impeachment. If Democrats nominate a credible statewide figure and nationalize the race around Paxton's conduct, Texas becomes a realistic pickup opportunity.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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