Possible scenario
Probe Loses Momentum
25% Chance
The search produces insufficient evidence to support a charge against Omar in the near term. DHS may continue reviewing records, but the case fades from a potential constitutional crisis into a lower-intensity investigation and partisan media battle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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