Possible scenario
Criminal Case Advances
35% Chance
DHS and DOJ treat the raid as part of a serious criminal immigration investigation rather than a purely political pressure tactic. The most likely path is a formal legal escalation, but prosecutors may focus on aides, relatives, or nonprofit intermediaries if evidence against Rep. Ilhan Omar is weaker.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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