Possible scenario
Ukraine Expands Campaign
18% Chance
Ukraine interprets the Yandex strikes as an effective way to disrupt Russian command, propaganda, AI, and business infrastructure. Further attacks remain focused on Russian digital capacity rather than direct Western assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Telecommunications -0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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