Possible scenario
Retaliatory Cyber Escalation
28% Chance
Russia responds through cyber operations, drone retaliation, or coercive action against Ukrainian and possibly European digital infrastructure. This creates a more visible geopolitical risk premium, though still below systemic-crisis levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Telecommunications -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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