Possible scenario
Limited Operational Incident
20% Chance
An attempted surveillance, drone, cyber, or sabotage operation occurs but remains limited in scale. This would be a material escalation from intelligence targeting, though still short of a broad U.S.-Iran confrontation if casualties are avoided.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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