Possible scenario
Contained Lone Actor
42% Chance
Investigators in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel conclude the cockpit attack was carried out by a single individual rather than an organized cell. This is the most likely path because the available reports point to an identified suspect in Saudi custody and a security probe still focused on the aircraft and crew chain.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.