Possible scenario
Confirmed Terror Plot
28% Chance
Israeli and UAE officials classify the incident as a terrorism-related attempt against a flight serving the Dubai-Tel Aviv corridor. The outcome would drive temporary route suspensions, stricter airport security and a modest risk-off reaction focused on Middle East travel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.