Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
38% Chance
The most likely path is a contained Saudi response: Riyadh uses the aircraft survival as evidence that Houthi air-defense claims are inflated, while still conducting additional strikes in Saada and northern Yemen. The conflict remains active, but neither side immediately expands attacks to strategic oil infrastructure or major Gulf shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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