Possible scenario
Threat Network Persists
27% Chance
The conviction does not end the underlying campaign because Tehran-linked actors can still outsource surveillance and intimidation to criminal networks. European agencies remain focused on protecting dissidents, journalists and Jewish or Israeli-linked targets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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