Possible scenario
Court Escalates Scrutiny
20% Chance
Judge Reyes treats the Trump post, the earlier tree cutting, and the attempted disqualification motion as a pattern requiring closer judicial supervision. This scenario would not be market-moving, but it would intensify the institutional clash between the court and the administration.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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