Possible scenario
Merz Pivots Right
20% Chance
Friedrich Merz responds by shifting the CDU-led federal government toward stricter migration, internal-security, and fiscal messaging. The aim is to recover conservative voters from AfD while avoiding a formal break with coalition partners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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