Possible scenario
Firewall Coalition Holds
30% Chance
Mainstream and left-populist parties keep AfD out of state power despite its first-place finish. The arrangement is politically awkward, but it preserves the postwar anti-AfD firewall and reduces immediate institutional uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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