Possible scenario
AfD Enters Power
35% Chance
AfD converts its first-place state result into real governing influence in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after the CDU collapse makes traditional center-right arithmetic impossible. The national CDU leadership maintains its formal firewall, but local bargaining, defections, or minority arrangements give AfD a policy foothold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.