Possible scenario
Russian Signaling Escalates
20% Chance
Russia treats the pact as a direct challenge after its Kaliningrad warhead deployment and responds with nuclear signaling, exercises or new basing language in Belarus. The market impact is mostly a short-term volatility and safe-haven reaction, with defense shares outperforming broader cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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