Possible scenario
European Pillar Consolidates
45% Chance
France turns the 10-nation pact into a structured European nuclear consultation mechanism rather than an immediate deployment program. Germany, Poland, the Baltics, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain and the Nordics treat it as a NATO fallback layer while keeping U.S. extended deterrence formally central.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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