Possible scenario
Domestic Friction Slows
25% Chance
The agreement faces legal, budgetary and sovereignty objections in several capitals. France keeps the pact alive, but implementation shifts toward consultation and procurement coordination rather than visible nuclear commitments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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