Possible scenario
Reallocation Rule Holds
45% Chance
EPA's decision to reallocate all waived biofuel volumes remains the operative policy, forcing non-exempt refiners and fuel importers to cover the shortfall. This is the most likely path because the agency has been moving toward stricter Renewable Fuel Standard enforcement since its March 2026 rules.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
Tickers
- GPRE+3.2%
- CVI-2.8%
- VLO-1.6%
- MPC-1.1%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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