Possible scenario
Strikes Are Delayed
25% Chance
US officials slow or pause the operational timeline because of election risk, allied coordination problems, or uncertainty over buried enriched uranium. Israel retains the option to strike later, but the immediate pre-election escalation risk fades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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