Possible scenario
Limited Strikes Proceed
40% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem carry out a renewed but bounded air and missile campaign before the Israeli election. The most likely operational focus is remaining buried enrichment material, IRGC missile infrastructure, and air-defense nodes rather than a full regime-change campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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