Possible scenario
Iran Escalates First
20% Chance
Tehran attempts to regain deterrence by launching missiles, drones, or proxy operations before renewed US-Israeli strikes can begin. This is less likely than a controlled US-Israeli operation but plausible given the recent history of missile waves against Israel.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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