Possible scenario
GOP Hardline Consolidates
35% Chance
Republican elected officials and conservative media treat the poll as confirmation that anti-Muslim messaging still mobilizes a large share of the GOP base. Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Senate campaign committees keep tying Muslim civic groups and candidates to extremism rather than moderating after criticism.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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