Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Drift
25% Chance
Tehran publicly resists a U.S.-branded pact while avoiding steps that would collapse the cease-fire. Energy repairs remain slow, but both sides preserve backchannels after the September Hormuz exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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