Possible scenario
Escalation Into Saudi Arabia
24% Chance
Ansarallah expands from battlefield FPV attacks toward renewed cross-border strikes intended to pressure Riyadh and punish Saudi support for Yemeni government forces. Markets react mainly through oil-risk premia and modest safe-haven flows unless energy infrastructure is directly damaged.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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