Possible scenario
Sanctions And Diplomacy
20% Chance
The attack on students gives European leaders and the Biden administration a strong basis for additional punitive measures, even if military stocks remain constrained. Diplomatic activity also increases because Turkey, the UN and several non-Western governments can use the student deaths to press for humanitarian limits on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.1%
- LMT+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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