Possible scenario
Contained Military Escalation
25% Chance
Ukraine is likely to answer the campus attack with longer-range strikes against Russian launch sites, depots and air bases connected to Iskander-M operations. Russia then has incentives to continue missile pressure on Kyiv, but both sides still avoid direct NATO-Russia contact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- RTX+1.8%
- LMT+1.4%
- NOC+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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