Possible scenario
Israel Targets Settlers
28% Chance
The Israeli government tries to limit diplomatic damage by allowing security agencies to act against the attackers. The main constraint is coalition politics, as far-right ministers resist measures that look like a crackdown on the settlement movement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- ESLT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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