Possible scenario
Reliability Backlash
20% Chance
A subsequent reliability event or reserve warning strengthens the case for targeted curtailment authority. State commissions and PJM revise proposals to focus on emergency-only cuts, making them more legally defensible after the federal rejection.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- ORCL-0.6%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.