Possible scenario
Conditional Approval Path
30% Chance
Governance participants broadly support moving toward quantum resistance but condition the transition on audits, formal verification, and clearer migration mechanics. This is a realistic middle path because L1 upgrades involving accounts, wallets, and bridges carry high execution risk.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.