Possible scenario
Regulatory Scrutiny Builds
24% Chance
The SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets asks Nasdaq for a detailed incident timeline, resiliency documentation, and customer communications. The 2024 SEC fine against NYSE owner ICE for disclosure failures increases the likelihood that regulators focus on timeliness and transparency rather than only the technical root cause.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- NDAQ-3.6%
- ICE-0.6%
- CBOE-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.