Possible scenario
Managed NATO Containment
45% Chance
Poland and NATO keep the response limited to defensive combat air patrols, AWACS monitoring, and readiness around Rzeszów and eastern Poland. Russia continues attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure but avoids confirmed incursions into Polish airspace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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