Possible scenario
Back-Channel De-escalation
18% Chance
NATO, Poland, and intermediaries use military deconfliction channels to reduce the risk of further border incidents. Russia continues the war in Ukraine, but temporarily avoids missile and drone paths close to Polish territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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