Possible scenario
Broad Democratic Probe
38% Chance
Democrats regain the House and use committee control to open a high-profile investigation into Elon Musk's federal contracts, Starlink operations, and his prior DOGE-related access to spending systems. The probe becomes a major oversight priority but remains primarily a political and legal risk rather than an immediate macroeconomic event.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.6%
- TSLA-2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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