Possible scenario
Voluntary Safety Framework
40% Chance
California uses the two-month review to define a nonbinding frontier-model shutdown protocol rather than immediately imposing a statutory kill switch. This is the most likely path because Newsom previously vetoed a broader AI safety bill and may prefer a negotiated framework that keeps OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and venture investors engaged.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- META-0.4%
- MSFT+0.3%
- GOOG-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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