Possible scenario
Federal Preemption Fight
20% Chance
The Trump administration argues that the June 2026 AI oversight order occupies the field for frontier-model safety and export-sensitive AI controls. This creates a federal-state conflict that may reduce the odds of a uniquely California shutdown regime.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- META+1.2%
- NVDA+0.8%
- GOOG+0.5%
- MSFT-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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