Possible scenario
Strike Campaign Expands
20% Chance
Ukraine continues targeting Russian downstream capacity after repeated refinery disruptions. Additional strikes would make the refining low look structural rather than temporary, forcing Russia to deepen export curbs and reroute fuel internally.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Utilities -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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