Possible scenario
Rapid Stabilization
25% Chance
Rosneft restores partial operations faster than feared and Russian authorities signal that domestic stocks remain adequate. The market treats the refining low as a temporary trough rather than a sustained product-supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.