Possible scenario
Outages Persist
45% Chance
Russian refining remains depressed as Rosneft struggles to restore Kuibyshev and other damaged units. Moscow prioritizes domestic fuel supply, extends export restrictions, and relies on emergency logistics to contain shortages.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- VLO+1.1%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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