Possible scenario
Wider Northern War
30% Chance
The Abela clash becomes the start of a broader conventional conflict involving Tigray, Afar and Amhara areas. The most important risk is a renewed contest over transport routes linking Ethiopia to Djibouti and over airfields captured by Tigrayan forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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