Possible scenario
Federal Lines Hold
35% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force contains the Tigrayan offensive around Abela and prevents a rapid breakout into Afar. Fighting continues, but the immediate threat to the Addis Ababa-Djibouti trade corridor and major airports remains limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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