Possible scenario
Mine Campaign Persists
38% Chance
Iran continues framing tanker damage as mine-related, consistent with the recent sequence of mine strikes and IRGC activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping remains sharply reduced as insurers, tanker operators, and Gulf exporters wait for clearer evidence of navigable lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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